Our Mobile Future

Everything you need to know about the rise of mobile, tablets and virtual goods. Mary Meeker nails it and demos how fast change is occurring (I spend my life looking at this stuff and some was still new to me). My 7" Radio Edit is below...
Mary meeker mobile trends 11 feb 2011
So Lo Mo - Social Local Mobile
Mobile advertising is still in it's infancy but its developing fast, has very high transaction conversion rates and is very viral. 
  • Location-Based Services – Enable real-time physical retail / service opportunities - Shopkick
  • Transparent Pricing – Instant local + online price comparison disrupts retailers - ShopSavvy
  • Discounted Offers – Deep discounts drive foot traffic to local retailers - Groupon iPhone
  • Immediate Gratification – OTA (over-the-air) instant digital product + content delivery - Shazam/iTunes
"Mobile is clearly becoming a new way people shop," Jon Donahoe, CEO Ebay

Real-time social features accelerate mobile usage (sharing, location & friending). Instant gratification rules: Foursquare, Whrrl, Twitter, Text Plus, TextFree, Shazam & Spotify. 60% of time spent on smart phones is made up of new behaviours (maps, games, social media etc). Facebook mobile users are 50% more active than desktop users.
Monetization of apps has shifted away from pay per download to ad-funded & virtual good models. 
Androids market share has grown 615% from Q409 to Q410, Apples has grown 86%. These platforms completely dominate internet use and app downloads. 17 million Apple app downloads per day, 11 million a day on Android. 
Built-in billing and in-app commerce are going to be as important as 1-click was to Amazons success. 

It's likely Apps will leave a trail of devastated industries: 
Landline phone, radio, portable dvd players, digital cameras, mp3 players, GPS devices, Low-end camcorders, Voice recorders, translation services & dictionaries all set for culling. 

Once a market's been redefined by a disruptor (Apple and mobile, Zynga and gaming) the success of subsequent products eclipses that of the original. Apple had sold 240,000 iPods 9 months after launch, 3 million iPhones and 15 million iPads in the same time period. Prepare a market, hone distribution and if you keep innovating you'll see results. The adoption rate of Zynga's Cityvillle surpassed Farmville massively. 
Radical new products take a while to bed in peoples minds but the adoption life-cycle is accelerating (from early adopter to laggard). 

This year
Ubiquitous Computing – Real-time connectivity / 24×7 / in palm of hand 
More Affordable – Device and data plan pricing falling 
Faster – Networks and devices improving (owing to Moore’s Law)
Personal – Location / preferences / behaviour
Fun to use – Social / casual / reward-driven marketing 
Access nearly everything anywhere - “Stuff” in cloud
Explosion of apps and monetization – More and making more money 
Measurable real-world activation - Driving foot traffic to physical stores 
Reward / influence behaviour in real-time - for exactly the right people

HTML5 vs. downloadable apps
NFC (Near Field Communication) for payment/offers/loyalty
Consumer led mobile health for monitoring/diagnosis/wellness
Rapid enterprise adoption of tablets for productivity
Tipping Point > 50% population in developed markets will have Smartphone
“SoLoMo” – Social/local/mobile converging
"Gamification” – Ultimate way to engage a new generation of audiences

Empowerment – the impact of empowering billions of people around the world with real-time connected devices has just begun... It's going to be a fascinating decade. We’re at the beginning of a new era for social Internet innovators who are re-imagining and re-inventing a Web of people and places, looking beyond documents and websites.